Creating financial projections: a startup founder’s guide to forecasting growth

When pitching to investors, one of the first things they’ll ask for is your financial projections. Why? Because investors want to see where your company is headed, how fast it can grow, and how capital will be used.

But financial forecasting isn’t just about impressing VCs. It’s about building a roadmap for your business. A solid financial model helps you set revenue targets, plan hiring, and make better decisions.

So how do you create projections that are realistic, compelling, and investor-ready? Let’s break it down.

1. What are startup financial projections?

Financial projections are data-driven forecasts that estimate a startup’s revenue, expenses, profitability, and cash flow over time.

A typical startup financial model includes:

• Revenue Projections: How much money you expect to make.
• Cost Structure: Fixed and variable costs (salaries, marketing, etc.).
• Profitability Timeline: When your startup reaches breakeven and turns profitable.
• Cash Flow Forecast: How much cash you need to survive and grow.
• Funding Needs: How much capital is required and how it will be deployed.

💡 Best Practice: Most startups create 3-5 years of projections. While Year 1 should be detailed, later years should reflect scalable assumptions rather than guesswork.

2. Why do financial projections matter?

🚀 For Investors: They use projections to evaluate if your business is scalable and worth funding.

📈 For Founders: Financial models help you plan growth, avoid cash shortfalls, and set hiring budgets.

💰 For Lenders & Partners: Banks and strategic partners may require financial forecasts before extending credit or partnerships.

What investors look for:

• A logical and defendable growth trajectory.
• Understanding of unit economics (costs vs. revenue per customer).
• Cash flow management to avoid premature fundraising.

Learn more in Carta’s Guide to Financial Reporting.

3. How to build a startup financial model (step-by-step guide)

Step 1: Define your revenue model

• How does your startup make money? (SaaS subscriptions, e-commerce sales, transaction fees, etc.)
• What are your key revenue drivers? (Number of customers, average order value, churn rate, etc.)
• What’s your pricing strategy?

💡 Example (SaaS Startup Revenue Model):

• Start with monthly recurring revenue (MRR).
• Estimate customer acquisition rate.
• Factor in churn (customer cancellations per month).

Step 2: Estimate operating expenses

Identify fixed vs. variable costs:

• Fixed Costs: Salaries, rent, software subscriptions.
• Variable Costs: Marketing, customer acquisition, cloud computing.

💡 Rule of thumb: Early-stage startups should prioritize lean operations and focus spending on growth-driving activities (e.g., product development and marketing).

Step 3: Forecast cash flow

• How long will your current cash last?
• When will you need to raise your next round?
• How much do you need to hit key milestones?

💡 Investor tip: Many startups fail not because of bad products, but because they run out of cash. Your projections should show a clear runway to profitability or the next funding round.

Further reading: Silicon Valley Bank's Financial Forecasting for Startups.

Step 4: Model growth scenarios

Build multiple scenarios to show investors that you’re prepared for different market conditions. Investors want to see that you’ve thought about risk mitigation and can adjust if needed.

1. Base Case (most likely). Realistic growth assumptions based on historical data or industry benchmarks.
2. Best Case (optimistic). Aggressive but achievable revenue and funding goals.
3. Worst Case (conservative). Slow customer growth, economic downturns, or higher-than-expected expenses.

4. Financial Projection Benchmarks by Stage

Pre-seed startups:

• Revenue: Likely pre-revenue, but should have a clear monetization strategy.
• Burn Rate: $30K–$100K/month, depending on team size.
• Runway: At least 12–18 months post-funding.
• Growth Metrics: Early traction indicators (waitlists, beta users, LOIs).

Seed startups:

• Revenue: $250K–$1M ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) for SaaS; high-growth user engagement for other models.
• Burn Rate: $75K–$200K/month.
• Runway: 18–24 months post-funding.
• Growth Metrics: Early customer adoption, engagement, and retention rates.

Series A startups:

• Revenue: $2M–$5M ARR for SaaS; strong GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) for marketplaces.
• Burn Rate: $150K–$500K/month.
• Runway: 18–24 months post-funding.
• Growth Metrics: Efficient customer acquisition, high retention, scalability proof points.

📊 Investor expectations: They don’t just look at revenue. They analyze unit economics, customer retention, and how efficiently you’re growing.

5. Common financial projection mistakes (and how to avoid them)

🚩 Being overly optimistic: Unrealistic hockey-stick growth projections raise red flags. Keep estimates grounded in market data.

🚩 Ignoring churn & retention: Investors want to see how you’ll retain customers, not just acquire them.

🚩 Not accounting for seasonality: If your business has fluctuating demand (e.g., holiday spikes), model revenue accordingly.

🚩 Underestimating burn rate: Many startups burn through cash faster than expected. Plan for at least 12-18 months of runway.

Final thoughts: plan for growth, not just funding

Creating solid financial projections isn’t just about fundraising—it’s about making smarter business decisions. When done right, a financial model serves as a strategic blueprint that helps you:

✅ Plan funding rounds intelligently (without running out of cash).
✅ Scale operations sustainably (without overspending).
✅ Prove to investors that your startup is a high-growth opportunity.

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FAQs

1. How detailed should my financial projections be?
Your first 12-18 months should be detailed, while Years 2-5 can use assumptions based on industry benchmarks.

2. What’s the most important metric in financial projections?
Investors focus on cash flow runway, burn rate, and revenue growth.

3. Do pre-seed startups need financial projections?
Yes! Even if you don’t have revenue yet, investors expect to see a roadmap for monetization.

4. What if my actual financials don’t match projections?
That’s normal! Investors care more about your ability to adjust and manage growth effectively.

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